Mathematical Optimization Strategy for Effectiveness Profile Estimation in Two-Dose Vaccines and Its Use in Designing Improved Vaccination Strategies Focused on Pandemic Containment.

Since late 2019, most efforts to control the COVID-19 pandemic have focused on developing vaccines. By mid-2020, some vaccines fulfilled international regulations for their application. However, these vaccines have shown a decline in effectiveness several weeks after the last dose, highlighting the need to optimize vaccine administration due to supply chain limitations. While methods exist to prioritize population groups for vaccination, there is a lack of research on how to optimally define the time between doses when two-dose vaccines are administrated to such groups. Under such conditions, modeling the real effect of each vaccine on the population is critical. Even though several efforts have been made to characterize vaccine effectiveness profiles, none of these initiatives enable characterization of the individual effect of each dose. Thus, this paper presents a novel methodology for estimating the vaccine effectiveness profile. It addresses the vaccine characterization problem by considering a deconvolution of relevant data profiles, treating them as an optimization process. The results of this approach enabled the independent estimation of the effectiveness profiles for the first and second vaccine doses and their use to find sweet spots for designing efficient vaccination strategies. Our methodology can enable a more effective and efficient contemporary response against the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as for any other disease in the future.

A Novel Approach to Obtain Vaccine Effectiveness Continuous Profiles. Example Case: COVID-19 in Elderly Mexicans.

Population-wide vaccination is the most promising long-term COVID-19 disease management strategy. However, the protection offered by the currently available COVID-19 vaccines wanes over time, requiring boosters to be periodically given, which represents an unattainable challenge, especially if it is necessary to apply several doses per year. Therefore, it is essential to design strategies that contribute to maximizing the control of the pandemic with the available vaccines. Achieving this objective requires knowing, as precisely and accurately as possible, the changes in vaccine effectiveness over time in each population group, considering the eventual dependence on age, sex, etc. Thus, the present work proposes a novel approach to calculating realistic effectiveness profiles against symptomatic disease. In addition, this strategy can be adapted to estimate realistic effectiveness profiles against hospitalizations or deaths. All such time-dependent profiles allow the design of improved vaccination schedules, where each dose can be administrated to the population groups so that the fulfillment of the containment objectives is maximized. As a practical example for this analysis, vaccination against COVID-19 in Mexico was considered. However, this methodology can be applied to other countries' data or to characterize future vaccines with time-dependent effectiveness values. Since this strategy uses aggregated observational data collected from massive databases, assumptions about the data validity and the course of the studied epidemic could eventually be necessary.